CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Big Ten · 15 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
15–0100%
ATS vs close
10–471%
Model margin MAE
11.9
Market margin MAE
11.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nevada @ Penn StateFinal 11–46
Model
pred Penn State 31.6 · actual Penn State 35
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +43.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
New Mexico @ MichiganFinal 17–34
Model
pred Michigan 31.0 · actual Michigan 17
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 17.5 · closer
Missouri State @ USCFinal 13–73
Model
pred USC 23.2 · actual USC 60
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.8 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ IndianaFinal 14–27
Model
pred Indiana 20.7 · actual Indiana 13
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Buffalo @ MinnesotaFinal 10–23
Model
pred Minnesota 20.0 · actual Minnesota 13
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ WashingtonFinal 21–38
Model
pred Washington 15.0 · actual Washington 17
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ball State @ PurdueFinal 0–31
Model
pred Purdue 14.2 · actual Purdue 31
winner Purdue ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ MarylandFinal 7–39
Model
pred Maryland 13.5 · actual Maryland 32
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 18.5 · tie
Northwestern @ TulaneFinal 3–23
Model
pred Tulane 11.5 · actual Tulane 20
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Ohio @ RutgersFinal 31–34
Model
pred Rutgers 8.9 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ WisconsinFinal 0–17
Model
pred Wisconsin 7.3 · actual Wisconsin 17
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +18.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Michigan StateFinal 6–23
Model
pred Michigan State 6.5 · actual Michigan State 17
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ Ohio StateFinal 7–14
Model
pred Ohio State 3.4 · actual Ohio State 7
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Utah @ UCLAFinal 43–10
Model
pred Utah 0.5 · actual Utah 33
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.5 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ CincinnatiFinal 20–17
Model
pred Nebraska 1.1 · actual Nebraska 3
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 3.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.