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2024 · Week 9 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–0100%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
10.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nebraska @ Ohio StateFinal 17–21
Model
pred Ohio State 28.9 · actual Ohio State 4
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -25.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ MichiganFinal 17–24
Model
pred Michigan 24.7 · actual Michigan 7
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ OregonFinal 9–38
Model
pred Oregon 22.1 · actual Oregon 29
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +22.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ USCFinal 20–42
Model
pred USC 12.4 · actual USC 22
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +13.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 8.2 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ IowaFinal 14–40
Model
pred Iowa 11.1 · actual Iowa 26
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ IndianaFinal 17–31
Model
pred Indiana 10.1 · actual Indiana 14
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Maryland @ MinnesotaFinal 23–48
Model
pred Minnesota 0.1 · actual Minnesota 25
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Penn State @ WisconsinFinal 28–13
Model
pred Penn State 12.9 · actual Penn State 15
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 8.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.