CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Big Ten · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–443%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
17.3
Market margin MAE
16.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCLA @ RutgersFinal 35–32
Model
pred Rutgers 1.6 · actual UCLA 3
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +4.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 7.3 · closer
Nebraska @ IndianaFinal 7–56
Model
pred Indiana 1.3 · actual Indiana 49
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 47.7 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
USC @ MarylandFinal 28–29
Model
pred USC 0.8 · actual Maryland 1
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ NorthwesternFinal 23–3
Model
pred Wisconsin 8.4 · actual Wisconsin 20
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Michigan StateFinal 20–32
Model
pred Iowa 10.5 · actual Michigan State 12
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 7–21
Model
pred Michigan 12.9 · actual Illinois 14
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Oregon @ PurdueFinal 35–0
Model
pred Oregon 29.1 · actual Oregon 35
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.