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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 7 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Big Ten · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–443%
ATS vs close
1–614%
Model margin MAE
20.8
Market margin MAE
17.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ IllinoisFinal 49–50
Model
pred Illinois 15.3 · actual Illinois 1
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Northwestern @ MarylandFinal 37–10
Model
pred Maryland 12.1 · actual Northwestern 27
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 38.0 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ RutgersFinal 42–7
Model
pred Rutgers 2.1 · actual Wisconsin 35
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.1 · mkt 36.3 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ UCLAFinal 21–17
Model
pred Minnesota 3.2 · actual Minnesota 4
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ IowaFinal 16–40
Model
pred Washington 4.8 · actual Iowa 24
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ OregonFinal 31–32
Model
pred Ohio State 5.7 · actual Oregon 1
winner Ohio State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ USCFinal 33–30
Model
pred Penn State 21.8 · actual Penn State 3
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.