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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 6 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
12.8
Market margin MAE
11.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Michigan State @ OregonFinal 10–31
Model
pred Oregon 35.5 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -22.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ Penn StateFinal 11–27
Model
pred Penn State 23.2 · actual Penn State 16
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +29.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Iowa @ Ohio StateFinal 7–35
Model
pred Ohio State 19.8 · actual Ohio State 28
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Purdue @ WisconsinFinal 6–52
Model
pred Wisconsin 13.7 · actual Wisconsin 46
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin -12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 32.3 · mkt 34.0 · closer
Rutgers @ NebraskaFinal 7–14
Model
pred Nebraska 5.0 · actual Nebraska 7
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +6.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 0.7 · mkt closer
Michigan @ WashingtonFinal 17–27
Model
pred Michigan 1.9 · actual Washington 10
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ NorthwesternFinal 41–24
Model
pred Indiana 10.0 · actual Indiana 17
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
USC @ MinnesotaFinal 17–24
Model
pred USC 11.9 · actual Minnesota 7
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.