CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 5 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 5 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–0100%
ATS vs close
5–363%
Model margin MAE
5.8
Market margin MAE
5.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Illinois @ Penn StateFinal 7–21
Model
pred Penn State 20.5 · actual Penn State 14
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ USCFinal 21–38
Model
pred USC 8.6 · actual USC 17
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ MichiganFinal 24–27
Model
pred Michigan 7.8 · actual Michigan 3
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Washington @ RutgersFinal 18–21
Model
pred Rutgers 4.8 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 1.7 · mkt closer
Maryland @ IndianaFinal 28–42
Model
pred Indiana 0.4 · actual Indiana 14
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ PurdueFinal 28–10
Model
pred Nebraska 14.7 · actual Nebraska 18
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Oregon @ UCLAFinal 34–13
Model
pred Oregon 17.6 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ Michigan StateFinal 38–7
Model
pred Ohio State 26.7 · actual Ohio State 31
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.