CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 4 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Big Ten · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–464%
ATS vs close
4–736%
Model margin MAE
8.2
Market margin MAE
8.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Penn StateFinal 0–56
Model
pred Penn State 48.6 · actual Penn State 56
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +49.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Ohio StateFinal 14–49
Model
pred Ohio State 34.7 · actual Ohio State 35
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +39.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Charlotte @ IndianaFinal 14–52
Model
pred Indiana 23.9 · actual Indiana 38
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ LSUFinal 17–34
Model
pred LSU 20.8 · actual LSU 17
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Purdue @ Oregon StateFinal 21–38
Model
pred Oregon State 13.6 · actual Oregon State 17
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Northwestern @ WashingtonFinal 5–24
Model
pred Washington 11.7 · actual Washington 19
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Illinois @ NebraskaFinal 31–24
Model
pred Nebraska 10.5 · actual Illinois 7
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ Boston CollegeFinal 19–23
Model
pred Boston College 6.9 · actual Boston College 4
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ MinnesotaFinal 31–14
Model
pred Minnesota 3.0 · actual Iowa 17
winner Minnesota ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ Virginia TechFinal 26–23
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.1 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +3.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 6.3 · closer
USC @ MichiganFinal 24–27
Model
pred USC 7.3 · actual Michigan 3
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.