CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Big Ten · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–190%
ATS vs close
7–2 · 1P78%
Model margin MAE
14.0
Market margin MAE
16.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Central Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 9–30
Model
pred Illinois 21.7 · actual Illinois 21
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -21.0Push
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ MichiganFinal 18–28
Model
pred Michigan 16.5 · actual Michigan 10
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Troy @ IowaFinal 21–38
Model
pred Iowa 13.0 · actual Iowa 17
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Nevada @ MinnesotaFinal 0–27
Model
pred Minnesota 10.7 · actual Minnesota 27
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ WashingtonFinal 24–19
Model
pred Washington 3.6 · actual Washington State 5
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Indiana @ UCLAFinal 42–13
Model
pred Indiana 4.3 · actual Indiana 29
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Oregon @ Oregon StateFinal 49–14
Model
pred Oregon 8.1 · actual Oregon 35
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Maryland @ VirginiaFinal 27–13
Model
pred Maryland 14.8 · actual Maryland 14
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Alabama @ WisconsinFinal 42–10
Model
pred Alabama 19.4 · actual Alabama 32
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ PurdueFinal 66–7
Model
pred Notre Dame 20.4 · actual Notre Dame 59
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 38.6 · mkt 51.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.