CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Big Ten · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–375%
ATS vs close
4–833%
Model margin MAE
14.2
Market margin MAE
12.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Western Michigan @ Ohio StateFinal 0–56
Model
pred Ohio State 44.9 · actual Ohio State 56
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -37.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Bowling Green @ Penn StateFinal 27–34
Model
pred Penn State 41.9 · actual Penn State 7
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -35.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.9 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ WashingtonFinal 9–30
Model
pred Washington 40.9 · actual Washington 21
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington -25.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Utah State @ USCFinal 0–48
Model
pred USC 26.2 · actual USC 48
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.8 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ OregonFinal 34–37
Model
pred Oregon 21.8 · actual Oregon 3
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ RutgersFinal 17–49
Model
pred Rutgers 20.3 · actual Rutgers 32
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ NebraskaFinal 10–28
Model
pred Nebraska 15.5 · actual Nebraska 18
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Michigan State @ MarylandFinal 27–24
Model
pred Maryland 14.3 · actual Michigan State 3
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -8.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ IowaFinal 20–19
Model
pred Iowa 2.0 · actual Iowa State 1
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Texas @ MichiganFinal 31–12
Model
pred Texas 1.2 · actual Texas 19
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ IllinoisFinal 17–23
Model
pred Kansas 4.9 · actual Illinois 6
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ NorthwesternFinal 26–20
Model
pred Duke 5.6 · actual Duke 6
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.