CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 15 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · Big Ten · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
17.2
Market margin MAE
4.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Penn State @ OregonFinal 37–45
Model
pred Penn State 9.2 · actual Oregon 8
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.