CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Big Ten · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–280%
ATS vs close
5–4 · 1P56%
Model margin MAE
14.9
Market margin MAE
13.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Maryland @ Penn StateFinal 7–44
Model
pred Penn State 29.3 · actual Penn State 37
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -26.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Washington @ OregonFinal 21–49
Model
pred Oregon 16.4 · actual Oregon 28
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ IndianaFinal 0–66
Model
pred Indiana 15.5 · actual Indiana 66
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 50.5 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ Ohio StateFinal 13–10
Model
pred Ohio State 12.6 · actual Michigan 3
winner Ohio State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +20.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Nebraska @ IowaFinal 10–13
Model
pred Iowa 9.3 · actual Iowa 3
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -3.0Push
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ WisconsinFinal 24–7
Model
pred Wisconsin 4.8 · actual Minnesota 17
winner Wisconsin ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.8 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ UCLAFinal 13–20
Model
pred UCLA 2.3 · actual UCLA 7
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ NorthwesternFinal 38–28
Model
pred Illinois 3.9 · actual Illinois 10
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ Michigan StateFinal 41–14
Model
pred Rutgers 5.3 · actual Rutgers 27
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.7 · mkt 28.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ USCFinal 49–35
Model
pred Notre Dame 11.4 · actual Notre Dame 14
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 7.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.