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2024 · Week 12 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Big Ten · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
5–271%
Model margin MAE
9.9
Market margin MAE
10.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nebraska @ USCFinal 20–28
Model
pred USC 14.8 · actual USC 8
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ WashingtonFinal 19–31
Model
pred Washington 9.4 · actual Washington 12
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Rutgers @ MarylandFinal 31–17
Model
pred Maryland 4.8 · actual Rutgers 14
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ IllinoisFinal 16–38
Model
pred Illinois 3.5 · actual Illinois 22
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Oregon @ WisconsinFinal 16–13
Model
pred Oregon 11.4 · actual Oregon 3
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Ohio State @ NorthwesternFinal 31–7
Model
pred Ohio State 21.7 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Penn State @ PurdueFinal 49–10
Model
pred Penn State 27.3 · actual Penn State 39
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +30.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.