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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 11 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Big Ten · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
5–183%
Model margin MAE
8.6
Market margin MAE
9.8
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ Ohio StateFinal 0–45
Model
pred Ohio State 29.6 · actual Ohio State 45
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +37.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ Penn StateFinal 6–35
Model
pred Penn State 19.3 · actual Penn State 29
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Maryland @ OregonFinal 18–39
Model
pred Oregon 18.7 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Michigan @ IndianaFinal 15–20
Model
pred Michigan 1.4 · actual Indiana 5
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Iowa @ UCLAFinal 17–20
Model
pred Iowa 1.6 · actual UCLA 3
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Minnesota @ RutgersFinal 19–26
Model
pred Minnesota 6.1 · actual Rutgers 7
winner Minnesota ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 13.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.