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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 10 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
6–275%
Model margin MAE
13.5
Market margin MAE
13.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ohio State @ Penn StateFinal 20–13
Model
pred Penn State 3.3 · actual Ohio State 7
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ IowaFinal 10–42
Model
pred Iowa 2.6 · actual Iowa 32
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 29.5 · closer
UCLA @ NebraskaFinal 27–20
Model
pred Nebraska 1.9 · actual UCLA 7
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 14.5 · closer
USC @ WashingtonFinal 21–26
Model
pred USC 1.0 · actual Washington 5
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Oregon @ MichiganFinal 38–17
Model
pred Oregon 1.7 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.3 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ IllinoisFinal 25–17
Model
pred Minnesota 3.3 · actual Minnesota 8
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Northwestern @ PurdueFinal 26–20
Model
pred Northwestern 7.5 · actual Northwestern 6
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Indiana @ Michigan StateFinal 47–10
Model
pred Indiana 9.0 · actual Indiana 37
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.0 · mkt 29.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.