CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Big Ten · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
11–192%
ATS vs close
8–467%
Model margin MAE
9.3
Market margin MAE
7.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Akron @ Ohio StateFinal 6–52
Model
pred Ohio State 38.7 · actual Ohio State 46
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +49.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ MichiganFinal 10–30
Model
pred Michigan 30.2 · actual Michigan 20
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
UTEP @ NebraskaFinal 7–40
Model
pred Nebraska 22.7 · actual Nebraska 33
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ WisconsinFinal 14–28
Model
pred Wisconsin 21.5 · actual Wisconsin 14
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 10.0 · closer
UConn @ MarylandFinal 7–50
Model
pred Maryland 20.7 · actual Maryland 43
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -19.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.3 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Florida International @ IndianaFinal 7–31
Model
pred Indiana 17.9 · actual Indiana 24
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan StateFinal 10–16
Model
pred Michigan State 11.2 · actual Michigan State 6
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
USC @ LSUFinal 27–20
Model
pred LSU 5.8 · actual USC 7
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ NorthwesternFinal 6–13
Model
pred Northwestern 3.8 · actual Northwestern 7
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 3.5 · closer
North Carolina @ MinnesotaFinal 19–17
Model
pred North Carolina 6.1 · actual North Carolina 2
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ West VirginiaFinal 34–12
Model
pred Penn State 12.9 · actual Penn State 22
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
UCLA @ Hawai'iFinal 16–13
Model
pred UCLA 16.3 · actual UCLA 3
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.