CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Big Sky · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Big Sky · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
17.9
Market margin MAE
5.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sacramento State @ NevadaFinal 17–20
Model
pred Nevada 20.9 · actual Nevada 3
winner Nevada ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -8.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.