CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 2 · Big Sky · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents Big Sky MVFC

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Week 2 backtest · Big Sky · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–0100%

ATS vs close

1–0100%

Model margin MAE

7.5

Market margin MAE

2.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFinal 30–46

Model

pred Fresno State 8.5 · actual Fresno State 16

winner Fresno State ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Sacramento State +18.5Cover ✓

margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.