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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 1 · Big Sky · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Big Sky · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
1.4
Market margin MAE
15.5
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sacramento State @ San José StateFinal 24–42
Model
pred San José State 16.6 · actual San José State 18
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.