CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 9 · 7 games

Oklahoma State @ Iowa StateIowa State 88%

Model

Iowa State -16.8 · mkt Iowa State —

proj Oklahoma State 17.6 · Iowa State 34.4

Total

proj 52.0

Arizona @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%

Model

Texas Tech -14.6 · mkt Texas Tech —

proj Arizona 21.2 · Texas Tech 35.9

Total

proj 57.1

Arizona State @ BYUBYU 76%

Model

BYU -9.9 · mkt BYU —

proj Arizona State 23.8 · BYU 33.7

Total

proj 57.6

Kansas @ TCUTCU 69%

Model

TCU -6.9 · mkt TCU —

proj Kansas 22.9 · TCU 29.8

Total

proj 52.8

Baylor @ UCFUCF 51%

Model

UCF -0.4 · mkt UCF —

proj Baylor 28.1 · UCF 28.5

Total

proj 56.6

Kansas State @ ColoradoKansas State 67%

Model

Kansas State -6.1 · mkt Kansas State —

proj Kansas State 29.7 · Colorado 23.6

Total

proj 53.3

Utah @ CincinnatiUtah 80%

Model

Utah -12.0 · mkt Utah —

proj Utah 34.4 · Cincinnati 22.4

Total

proj 56.8

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.