CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 8 · 8 games
West Virginia @ TCUTCU 81%
Model
TCU -12.5 · mkt TCU —
proj West Virginia 20.4 · TCU 32.9
Total
proj 53.2
Baylor @ KansasKansas 65%
Model
Kansas -5.5 · mkt Kansas —
proj Baylor 24.2 · Kansas 29.7
Total
proj 53.9
Iowa State @ ArizonaArizona 60%
Model
Arizona -3.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Iowa State 28.4 · Arizona 32.0
Total
proj 60.4
Kansas State @ Arizona StateArizona State 57%
Model
Arizona State -2.4 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas State 25.3 · Arizona State 27.7
Total
proj 53.0
Colorado @ Oklahoma StateOklahoma State 54%
Model
Oklahoma State -1.4 · mkt Oklahoma State —
proj Colorado 26.7 · Oklahoma State 28.1
Total
proj 54.9
Texas Tech @ CincinnatiTexas Tech 91%
Model
Texas Tech -19.1 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.5 · Cincinnati 21.5
Total
proj 62.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.