CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ BYU9.8 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -0.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
LeanBYU +10.5
Best priceBYU +10.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 52%
Kansas @ Kansas State3.1 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas State -5.4 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
LeanKansas +8.5
Best priceKansas +8.5 -110best of 1
WinKansas State 65%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 7 · 7 games
Notre Dame @ BYUNotre Dame 52%
Model
Notre Dame -0.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
proj Notre Dame 27.0 · BYU 26.3
leans BYU +10.5
◆ Mid 0
BYU +10.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -10.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas @ Kansas StateKansas State 65%
Model
Kansas State -5.4 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
proj Kansas 25.1 · Kansas State 30.5
leans Kansas +8.5
◆ Mid 0
Kansas State -8.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas +8.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State @ Texas TechTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.4 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona State 20.6 · Texas Tech 34.1
Total
proj 54.7
Oklahoma State @ HoustonHouston 79%
Model
Houston -11.6 · mkt Houston —
proj Oklahoma State 21.4 · Houston 33.0
Total
proj 54.4
Cincinnati @ West VirginiaCincinnati 62%
Model
Cincinnati -4.5 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Cincinnati 27.1 · West Virginia 22.7
Total
proj 49.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.