CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 6 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 6 · 6 games

Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 85%

Model

Arizona State -14.7 · mkt Arizona State —

proj Hawai'i 19.6 · Arizona State 34.3

Total

proj 53.9

Kansas @ UtahUtah 81%

Model

Utah -12.3 · mkt Utah —

proj Kansas 22.2 · Utah 34.6

Total

proj 56.8

Houston @ Kansas StateKansas State 69%

Model

Kansas State -6.9 · mkt Kansas State —

proj Houston 23.6 · Kansas State 30.5

Total

proj 54.1

Iowa State @ BYUBYU 67%

Model

BYU -6.3 · mkt BYU —

proj Iowa State 26.4 · BYU 32.7

Total

proj 59.1

UCF @ Oklahoma StateUCF 63%

Model

UCF -4.6 · mkt UCF —

proj UCF 27.5 · Oklahoma State 22.9

Total

proj 50.4

Arizona @ West VirginiaArizona 74%

Model

Arizona -9.1 · mkt Arizona —

proj Arizona 31.6 · West Virginia 22.5

Total

proj 54.1

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.