CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 5 · 7 games
Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 93%
Model
Kansas -21.1 · mkt Kansas —
proj Middle Tennessee 17.7 · Kansas 38.8
Total
proj 56.5
West Virginia @ Iowa StateIowa State 81%
Model
Iowa State -12.5 · mkt Iowa State —
proj West Virginia 19.9 · Iowa State 32.4
Total
proj 52.4
Cincinnati @ ArizonaArizona 79%
Model
Arizona -11.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Cincinnati 22.4 · Arizona 34.1
Total
proj 56.5
Baylor @ Arizona StateArizona State 74%
Model
Arizona State -9.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Baylor 23.1 · Arizona State 32.4
Total
proj 55.5
Texas Tech @ ColoradoTexas Tech 88%
Model
Texas Tech -16.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 34.1 · Colorado 17.6
Total
proj 51.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.