CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 4 · 8 games
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 99%
Model
Texas Tech -35.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 15.5 · Texas Tech 51.5
Total
proj 67.0
Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 74%
Model
West Virginia -9.3 · mkt West Virginia —
proj Oklahoma State 23.6 · West Virginia 32.9
Total
proj 56.5
Colorado @ BaylorBaylor 63%
Model
Baylor -4.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Colorado 23.8 · Baylor 28.7
Total
proj 52.5
Kansas State @ CincinnatiKansas State 52%
Model
Kansas State -0.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 24.9 · Cincinnati 24.4
Total
proj 49.3
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 56%
Model
Arizona -2.1 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 28.0 · Washington State 25.9
Total
proj 53.8
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 70%
Model
Houston -7.6 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 32.7 · Georgia Southern 25.2
Total
proj 57.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.