CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 3 · 13 games
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 95%
Model
Arizona -23.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 14.4 · Arizona 38.2
Total
proj 52.6
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 93%
Model
TCU -20.9 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 17.3 · TCU 38.2
Total
proj 55.5
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 92%
Model
Iowa State -20.0 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 17.0 · Iowa State 37.0
Total
proj 54.1
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 86%
Model
UCF -15.4 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.1 · UCF 33.5
Total
proj 51.7
Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%
Model
Texas Tech -15.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Houston 18.8 · Texas Tech 33.8
Total
proj 52.5
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 82%
Model
Baylor -12.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 20.4 · Baylor 33.2
Total
proj 53.6
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 76%
Model
Northwestern -10.2 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.5 · Northwestern 27.6
Total
proj 45.1
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 69%
Model
Kansas State -7.0 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 22.5 · Kansas State 29.5
Total
proj 52.0
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -5.7 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 23.6 · Cincinnati 29.4
Total
proj 53.0
Kansas @ Arizona StateArizona State 55%
Model
Arizona State -1.7 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas 24.9 · Arizona State 26.6
Total
proj 51.5
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 65%
Model
Virginia -5.6 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.3 · West Virginia 23.7
Total
proj 53.0
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 94%
Model
BYU -22.5 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 41.0 · Colorado State 18.5
Total
proj 59.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.