CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Missouri @ Kansas6.9 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinKansas 50%
Oregon @ Oklahoma State5.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 95%
Arkansas @ Utah3.9 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 84%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.5 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 88%
Iowa State @ Iowa1.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 77%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 2 · 9 games
Missouri @ KansasKansas 50%
Model
Kansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
proj Missouri 29.4 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 37.0 · Oklahoma State 12.9
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 84%
Model
Utah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 21.5 · Utah 35.4
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 88%
Model
Texas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.5 · Texas A&M 34.4
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 77%
Model
Iowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.0 · Iowa 32.6
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
UCF @ PittsburghPittsburgh 76%
Model
Pittsburgh -10.3 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj UCF 23.6 · Pittsburgh 33.9
Total
proj 57.5
Washington State @ Kansas StateKansas State 75%
Model
Kansas State -9.4 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Washington State 21.2 · Kansas State 30.6
Total
proj 51.7
Texas Tech @ Oregon StateTexas Tech 92%
Model
Texas Tech -19.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 31.3 · Oregon State 11.4
Total
proj 42.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.