CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 13 · 8 games
West Virginia @ UtahUtah 94%
Model
Utah -22.0 · mkt Utah —
proj West Virginia 14.7 · Utah 36.8
Total
proj 51.5
TCU @ Texas TechTexas Tech 84%
Model
Texas Tech -14.3 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj TCU 20.3 · Texas Tech 34.6
Total
proj 55.0
Baylor @ HoustonHouston 71%
Model
Houston -8.0 · mkt Houston —
proj Baylor 24.5 · Houston 32.5
Total
proj 56.9
Kansas State @ Iowa StateIowa State 69%
Model
Iowa State -7.1 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Kansas State 24.1 · Iowa State 31.2
Total
proj 55.3
Arizona State @ ArizonaArizona 65%
Model
Arizona -5.4 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona State 25.0 · Arizona 30.4
Total
proj 55.4
UCF @ ColoradoColorado 54%
Model
Colorado -1.5 · mkt Colorado —
proj UCF 23.7 · Colorado 25.2
Total
proj 48.9
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateKansas 75%
Model
Kansas -9.7 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 33.4 · Oklahoma State 23.7
Total
proj 57.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.