CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 12 · 8 games
Oklahoma State @ Arizona StateArizona State 87%
Model
Arizona State -16.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.4 · Arizona State 34.6
Total
proj 53.0
Colorado @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -6.0 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Colorado 22.9 · Cincinnati 28.9
Total
proj 51.8
Arizona @ Kansas StateArizona 50%
Model
Arizona -0.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 25.3 · Kansas State 25.2
Total
proj 50.5
Iowa State @ UCFIowa State 55%
Model
Iowa State -1.9 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 27.8 · UCF 25.9
Total
proj 53.7
Houston @ West VirginiaHouston 61%
Model
Houston -4.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 28.4 · West Virginia 24.3
Total
proj 52.7
Texas Tech @ BaylorTexas Tech 95%
Model
Texas Tech -23.1 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.0 · Baylor 16.8
Total
proj 56.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.