CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 11 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 11 · 8 games

Baylor @ BYUBYU 84%

Model

BYU -14.2 · mkt BYU —

proj Baylor 19.2 · BYU 33.4

Total

proj 52.6

Cincinnati @ Iowa StateIowa State 75%

Model

Iowa State -9.7 · mkt Iowa State —

proj Cincinnati 22.9 · Iowa State 32.7

Total

proj 55.6

Kansas State @ TCUTCU 64%

Model

TCU -5.1 · mkt TCU —

proj Kansas State 23.5 · TCU 28.6

Total

proj 52.1

Arizona State @ UCFUCF 52%

Model

UCF -0.9 · mkt UCF —

proj Arizona State 27.9 · UCF 28.8

Total

proj 56.7

Utah @ ArizonaUtah 60%

Model

Utah -3.5 · mkt Utah —

proj Utah 29.2 · Arizona 25.7

Total

proj 55.0

Houston @ ColoradoHouston 63%

Model

Houston -4.5 · mkt Houston —

proj Houston 27.2 · Colorado 22.7

Total

proj 50.0

Kansas @ West VirginiaKansas 65%

Model

Kansas -5.5 · mkt Kansas —

proj Kansas 30.6 · West Virginia 25.1

Total

proj 55.6

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateTexas Tech 92%

Model

Texas Tech -20.3 · mkt Texas Tech —

proj Texas Tech 31.8 · Oklahoma State 11.5

Total

proj 43.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.