CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 10 · 8 games
West Virginia @ Texas TechTexas Tech 93%
Model
Texas Tech -21.2 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj West Virginia 16.9 · Texas Tech 38.1
Total
proj 54.9
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateKansas State 90%
Model
Kansas State -17.8 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Oklahoma State 20.3 · Kansas State 38.1
Total
proj 58.3
Colorado @ Arizona StateArizona State 76%
Model
Arizona State -9.9 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Colorado 22.2 · Arizona State 32.1
Total
proj 54.2
Cincinnati @ HoustonHouston 63%
Model
Houston -4.8 · mkt Houston —
proj Cincinnati 23.3 · Houston 28.1
Total
proj 51.3
Iowa State @ BaylorBaylor 50%
Model
Baylor 0.0 · mkt Baylor —
proj Iowa State 27.9 · Baylor 27.9
Total
proj 55.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.