CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0
LeanTulsa +13.0
Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7
WinTulsa 52%
Colorado @ Georgia Tech7.4 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia Tech -14.7 · mkt Georgia Tech ~-7.3
LeanGeorgia Tech -7.3
Best priceGeorgia Tech -7 -106best of 7
WinGeorgia Tech 85%
Baylor @ Auburn5.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -12.6 · mkt Auburn ~-7.5
LeanAuburn -7.5
Best priceAuburn -7 -105best of 8
WinAuburn 81%
North Carolina @ TCU5.0 pt gap
Model vs mktTCU -12.0 · mkt TCU ~-7.0
LeanTCU -7.0
Best priceTCU -6.5 -110best of 8
WinTCU 80%
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktWest Virginia -13.4 · mkt West Virginia ~-18.0
LeanCoastal Carolina +18.0
Best priceCoastal Carolina +18.5 -115best of 7
WinWest Virginia 83%
Oregon State @ Houston4.5 pt gap
Model vs mktHouston -14.0 · mkt Houston ~-18.5
LeanOregon State +18.5
Best priceOregon State +18.5 -110best of 7
WinHouston 84%
Boston College @ Cincinnati1.2 pt gap
Model vs mktCincinnati -8.7 · mkt Cincinnati ~-7.5
LeanCincinnati -7.5
Best priceCincinnati -7.5 -110best of 7
WinCincinnati 73%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 1 · 7 games
Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 52%
Model
Tulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0
proj Oklahoma State 28.5 · Tulsa 29.3
leans Tulsa +13.0
◆ Mid 1
Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel
Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings
Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -14.7 · mkt Georgia Tech ~-7.3
proj Colorado 17.8 · Georgia Tech 32.5
leans Georgia Tech -7.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig
Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings
Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 81%
Model
Auburn -12.6 · mkt Auburn ~-7.5
proj Baylor 21.3 · Auburn 34.0
leans Auburn -7.5
◆ Mid 1
Auburn -7 -105DraftKings
Baylor +8 -113BetRivers
North Carolina @ TCUTCU 80%
Model
TCU -12.0 · mkt TCU ~-7.0
proj North Carolina 23.4 · TCU 35.4
leans TCU -7.0
◆ Mid 1
TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina +7.5 -106LowVig
Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 83%
Model
West Virginia -13.4 · mkt West Virginia ~-18.0
proj Coastal Carolina 19.2 · West Virginia 32.6
leans Coastal Carolina +18.0
◆ Mid 1
West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel
Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%
Model
Houston -14.0 · mkt Houston ~-18.5
proj Oregon State 20.4 · Houston 34.4
leans Oregon State +18.5
◆ Mid 0
Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 73%
Model
Cincinnati -8.7 · mkt Cincinnati ~-7.5
proj Boston College 22.3 · Cincinnati 31.1
leans Cincinnati -7.5
◆ Mid 0
Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.