CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 9 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 9 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
3–443%
Model margin MAE
18.7
Market margin MAE
17.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oklahoma State @ Texas TechFinal 0–42
Model
pred Texas Tech 21.7 · actual Texas Tech 42
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +37.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ UtahFinal 7–53
Model
pred Utah 6.3 · actual Utah 46
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.7 · mkt 32.0 · mkt closer
Baylor @ CincinnatiFinal 20–41
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.2 · actual Cincinnati 21
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ Arizona StateFinal 24–16
Model
pred Arizona State 0.1 · actual Houston 8
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Kansas State @ KansasFinal 42–17
Model
pred Kansas State 2.9 · actual Kansas State 25
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 28.5 · closer
BYU @ Iowa StateFinal 41–27
Model
pred BYU 3.8 · actual BYU 14
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 16.5 · closer
TCU @ West VirginiaFinal 23–17
Model
pred TCU 16.9 · actual TCU 6
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.