CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 8 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
5–183%
Model margin MAE
9.8
Market margin MAE
10.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
West Virginia @ UCFFinal 13–45
Model
pred UCF 9.1 · actual UCF 32
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Arizona @ HoustonFinal 28–31
Model
pred Houston 8.5 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Baylor @ TCUFinal 36–42
Model
pred TCU 4.0 · actual TCU 6
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Utah @ BYUFinal 21–24
Model
pred BYU 0.8 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Texas Tech @ Arizona StateFinal 22–26
Model
pred Texas Tech 4.4 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma StateFinal 49–17
Model
pred Cincinnati 14.2 · actual Cincinnati 32
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.