CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
11.7
Market margin MAE
10.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCF @ CincinnatiFinal 11–20
Model
pred Cincinnati 8.8 · actual Cincinnati 9
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Kansas @ Texas TechFinal 17–42
Model
pred Texas Tech 8.7 · actual Texas Tech 25
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ UtahFinal 10–42
Model
pred Utah 3.5 · actual Utah 32
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.5 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ ColoradoFinal 17–24
Model
pred Iowa State 1.5 · actual Colorado 7
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 10.0 · closer
TCU @ Kansas StateFinal 28–41
Model
pred TCU 1.9 · actual Kansas State 13
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 16.0 · closer
BYU @ ArizonaFinal 33–27
Model
pred BYU 8.6 · actual BYU 6
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Houston @ Oklahoma StateFinal 39–17
Model
pred Houston 11.3 · actual Houston 22
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.