CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
1–614%
Model margin MAE
10.0
Market margin MAE
5.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
West Virginia @ BYUFinal 24–38
Model
pred BYU 22.0 · actual BYU 14
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ TCUFinal 21–35
Model
pred TCU 12.7 · actual TCU 14
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ ArizonaFinal 13–41
Model
pred Arizona 8.6 · actual Arizona 28
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ BaylorFinal 34–35
Model
pred Baylor 4.4 · actual Baylor 1
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Kansas @ UCFFinal 27–20
Model
pred UCF 0.0 · actual Kansas 7
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ CincinnatiFinal 30–38
Model
pred Iowa State 1.7 · actual Cincinnati 8
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ HoustonFinal 35–11
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.8 · actual Texas Tech 24
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.2 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.