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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 5 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–450%
ATS vs close
1–6 · 1P14%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
9.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Cincinnati @ KansasFinal 37–34
Model
pred Kansas 9.3 · actual Cincinnati 3
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ Kansas StateFinal 20–34
Model
pred UCF 1.8 · actual Kansas State 14
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.8 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
TCU @ Arizona StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred TCU 1.9 · actual Arizona State 3
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU +3.0Push
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ Iowa StateFinal 14–39
Model
pred Arizona 2.6 · actual Iowa State 25
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
BYU @ ColoradoFinal 24–21
Model
pred BYU 7.5 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ West VirginiaFinal 48–14
Model
pred Utah 9.3 · actual Utah 34
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ Oklahoma StateFinal 45–27
Model
pred Baylor 13.6 · actual Baylor 18
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 27–24
Model
pred Houston 19.9 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.