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2025 · Week 4 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
7–188%
Model margin MAE
10.0
Market margin MAE
13.8
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
SMU @ TCUFinal 24–35
Model
pred TCU 13.7 · actual TCU 11
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Wyoming @ ColoradoFinal 20–37
Model
pred Colorado 13.7 · actual Colorado 17
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
West Virginia @ KansasFinal 10–41
Model
pred Kansas 10.4 · actual Kansas 31
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ UCFFinal 9–34
Model
pred UCF 9.6 · actual UCF 25
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Tulsa @ Oklahoma StateFinal 19–12
Model
pred Oklahoma State 5.2 · actual Tulsa 7
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Arizona State @ BaylorFinal 27–24
Model
pred Arizona State 4.0 · actual Arizona State 3
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Texas Tech @ UtahFinal 34–10
Model
pred Texas Tech 7.7 · actual Texas Tech 24
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 27.5 · closer
BYU @ East CarolinaFinal 34–13
Model
pred BYU 12.8 · actual BYU 21
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.