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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 3 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
1–614%
Model margin MAE
12.1
Market margin MAE
7.8
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ Texas TechFinal 14–45
Model
pred Texas Tech 19.0 · actual Texas Tech 31
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ ArizonaFinal 17–23
Model
pred Arizona 7.6 · actual Arizona 6
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Texas State @ Arizona StateFinal 15–34
Model
pred Arizona State 4.3 · actual Arizona State 19
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ HoustonFinal 20–36
Model
pred Houston 1.7 · actual Houston 16
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ West VirginiaFinal 24–31
Model
pred Pittsburgh 10.4 · actual West Virginia 7
winner Pittsburgh ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.4 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Utah @ WyomingFinal 31–6
Model
pred Utah 16.5 · actual Utah 25
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–16
Model
pred Iowa State 24.3 · actual Iowa State 8
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.