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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 14 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
3–4 · 1P43%
Model margin MAE
13.0
Market margin MAE
10.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Colorado @ Kansas StateFinal 14–24
Model
pred Kansas State 13.3 · actual Kansas State 10
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 6.5 · closer
UCF @ BYUFinal 21–41
Model
pred BYU 13.3 · actual BYU 20
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ TCUFinal 23–45
Model
pred TCU 3.6 · actual TCU 22
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 19.0 · closer
Houston @ BaylorFinal 31–24
Model
pred Baylor 1.5 · actual Houston 7
winner Baylor ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Arizona @ Arizona StateFinal 23–7
Model
pred Arizona State 1.2 · actual Arizona 16
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Utah @ KansasFinal 31–21
Model
pred Utah 6.5 · actual Utah 10
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +10.0Push
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ West VirginiaFinal 49–0
Model
pred Texas Tech 16.0 · actual Texas Tech 49
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 33.0 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ Oklahoma StateFinal 20–13
Model
pred Iowa State 20.4 · actual Iowa State 7
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.