CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
17.0
Market margin MAE
15.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCF @ Texas TechFinal 9–48
Model
pred Texas Tech 17.6 · actual Texas Tech 39
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ Arizona StateFinal 23–25
Model
pred Arizona State 10.8 · actual Arizona State 2
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ CincinnatiFinal 30–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 3.3 · actual Arizona 6
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 12.0 · closer
TCU @ BYUFinal 13–44
Model
pred BYU 1.7 · actual BYU 31
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Utah @ BaylorFinal 55–28
Model
pred Utah 3.8 · actual Utah 27
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.2 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ Oklahoma StateFinal 14–6
Model
pred Kansas State 17.9 · actual Kansas State 8
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +19.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 11.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.