CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Big 12 · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–180%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
7.4
Market margin MAE
5.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Iowa State @ TCUFinal 20–17
Model
pred TCU 7.6 · actual Iowa State 3
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ West VirginiaFinal 22–29
Model
pred West Virginia 3.7 · actual West Virginia 7
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ ArizonaFinal 20–24
Model
pred Arizona 2.9 · actual Arizona 4
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 1.5 · closer
BYU @ Texas TechFinal 7–29
Model
pred Texas Tech 1.1 · actual Texas Tech 22
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ UCFFinal 30–27
Model
pred Houston 1.7 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.