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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 10 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
17.6
Market margin MAE
19.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oklahoma State @ KansasFinal 21–38
Model
pred Kansas 15.6 · actual Kansas 17
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
West Virginia @ HoustonFinal 45–35
Model
pred Houston 14.3 · actual West Virginia 10
winner Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.3 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ BaylorFinal 3–30
Model
pred Baylor 5.4 · actual Baylor 27
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.6 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Cincinnati @ UtahFinal 14–45
Model
pred Utah 5.2 · actual Utah 31
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ Iowa StateFinal 24–19
Model
pred Arizona State 0.5 · actual Arizona State 5
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Texas Tech @ Kansas StateFinal 43–20
Model
pred Texas Tech 3.8 · actual Texas Tech 23
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Arizona @ ColoradoFinal 52–17
Model
pred Arizona 8.4 · actual Arizona 35
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.6 · mkt 31.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.