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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 9 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
7.2
Market margin MAE
7.6
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kansas @ Kansas StateFinal 27–29
Model
pred Kansas State 8.7 · actual Kansas State 2
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Cincinnati @ ColoradoFinal 23–34
Model
pred Colorado 4.3 · actual Colorado 11
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ TCUFinal 34–35
Model
pred Texas Tech 0.4 · actual TCU 1
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
West Virginia @ ArizonaFinal 31–26
Model
pred West Virginia 0.8 · actual West Virginia 5
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Oklahoma State @ BaylorFinal 28–38
Model
pred Oklahoma State 2.4 · actual Baylor 10
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
BYU @ UCFFinal 37–24
Model
pred BYU 4.2 · actual BYU 13
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Utah @ HoustonFinal 14–17
Model
pred Utah 7.4 · actual Houston 3
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.