CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 7 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Big 12 · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
4–180%
Model margin MAE
7.5
Market margin MAE
10.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Arizona @ BYUFinal 19–41
Model
pred BYU 1.4 · actual BYU 22
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ Arizona StateFinal 19–27
Model
pred Arizona State 0.9 · actual Arizona State 8
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Cincinnati @ UCFFinal 19–13
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.0 · actual Cincinnati 6
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Kansas State @ ColoradoFinal 31–28
Model
pred Kansas State 2.9 · actual Kansas State 3
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 0.5 · closer
Iowa State @ West VirginiaFinal 28–16
Model
pred Iowa State 7.2 · actual Iowa State 12
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 9.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.