CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
14.0
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Baylor @ Iowa StateFinal 21–43
Model
pred Iowa State 14.2 · actual Iowa State 22
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Houston @ TCUFinal 30–19
Model
pred TCU 10.6 · actual Houston 11
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.6 · mkt 27.5 · closer
West Virginia @ Oklahoma StateFinal 38–14
Model
pred Oklahoma State 6.2 · actual West Virginia 24
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.2 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ ArizonaFinal 28–22
Model
pred Texas Tech 1.5 · actual Texas Tech 6
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Kansas @ Arizona StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Kansas 1.9 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ FloridaFinal 13–24
Model
pred UCF 3.3 · actual Florida 11
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.