CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 5 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Big 12 · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–443%
ATS vs close
3–3 · 1P50%
Model margin MAE
14.4
Market margin MAE
14.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Colorado @ UCFFinal 48–21
Model
pred UCF 7.6 · actual Colorado 27
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.6 · mkt 39.5 · closer
Arizona @ UtahFinal 23–10
Model
pred Utah 3.7 · actual Arizona 13
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Cincinnati @ Texas TechFinal 41–44
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.7 · actual Texas Tech 3
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +3.0Push
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
TCU @ KansasFinal 38–27
Model
pred Kansas 2.4 · actual TCU 11
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
BYU @ BaylorFinal 34–28
Model
pred BYU 2.5 · actual BYU 6
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateFinal 20–42
Model
pred Oklahoma State 2.8 · actual Kansas State 22
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ HoustonFinal 20–0
Model
pred Iowa State 12.3 · actual Iowa State 20
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.