CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Big 12 · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–558%
ATS vs close
7–558%
Model margin MAE
7.9
Market margin MAE
9.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ UCFFinal 14–45
Model
pred UCF 27.8 · actual UCF 31
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Houston @ OklahomaFinal 12–16
Model
pred Oklahoma 20.7 · actual Oklahoma 4
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 23.5 · closer
Colorado @ NebraskaFinal 10–28
Model
pred Nebraska 15.5 · actual Nebraska 18
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 11.5 · closer
BYU @ SMUFinal 18–15
Model
pred SMU 15.3 · actual BYU 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ Oklahoma StateFinal 31–39
Model
pred Oklahoma State 8.9 · actual Oklahoma State 8
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Baylor @ UtahFinal 12–23
Model
pred Utah 8.4 · actual Utah 11
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Mississippi State @ Arizona StateFinal 23–30
Model
pred Arizona State 5.2 · actual Arizona State 7
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ CincinnatiFinal 28–27
Model
pred Cincinnati 5.2 · actual Pittsburgh 1
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ IowaFinal 20–19
Model
pred Iowa 2.0 · actual Iowa State 1
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Kansas @ IllinoisFinal 17–23
Model
pred Kansas 4.9 · actual Illinois 6
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ Washington StateFinal 16–37
Model
pred Texas Tech 6.3 · actual Washington State 21
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ TulaneFinal 34–27
Model
pred Kansas State 8.5 · actual Kansas State 7
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 2.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.