CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 15 backtest · Big 12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

0–10%

ATS vs close

0–10%

Model margin MAE

29.4

Market margin MAE

27.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Iowa State @ Arizona StateFinal 19–45

Model

pred Iowa State 3.4 · actual Arizona State 26

winner Iowa State ✗

ATS vs close

leaned Iowa State -1.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.