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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 14 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–450%
ATS vs close
4–3 · 1P57%
Model margin MAE
23.6
Market margin MAE
21.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kansas State @ Iowa StateFinal 21–29
Model
pred Iowa State 11.2 · actual Iowa State 8
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Houston @ BYUFinal 18–30
Model
pred BYU 11.0 · actual BYU 12
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +12.0Push
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ ArizonaFinal 49–7
Model
pred Arizona 4.4 · actual Arizona State 42
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 46.4 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ Texas TechFinal 15–52
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.6 · actual Texas Tech 37
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.4 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Utah @ UCFFinal 28–14
Model
pred UCF 1.4 · actual Utah 14
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Oklahoma State @ ColoradoFinal 0–52
Model
pred Oklahoma State 0.2 · actual Colorado 52
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 52.2 · mkt 37.0 · mkt closer
TCU @ CincinnatiFinal 20–13
Model
pred TCU 6.5 · actual TCU 7
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Kansas @ BaylorFinal 17–45
Model
pred Kansas 7.7 · actual Baylor 28
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.