CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
10.2
Market margin MAE
8.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Cincinnati @ Kansas StateFinal 15–41
Model
pred Kansas State 15.3 · actual Kansas State 26
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 18.5 · closer
UCF @ West VirginiaFinal 21–31
Model
pred West Virginia 4.4 · actual West Virginia 10
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateFinal 56–48
Model
pred Oklahoma State 3.2 · actual Texas Tech 8
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ TCUFinal 28–49
Model
pred TCU 2.9 · actual TCU 21
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
BYU @ Arizona StateFinal 23–28
Model
pred Arizona State 0.6 · actual Arizona State 5
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ HoustonFinal 20–10
Model
pred Baylor 1.5 · actual Baylor 10
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ UtahFinal 31–28
Model
pred Iowa State 3.7 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Colorado @ KansasFinal 21–37
Model
pred Colorado 6.2 · actual Kansas 16
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.